Tectonic Plate #1: % of families who can afford an independent school tuition [1]

• 1994: 18%

• 2019: 5%

Tectonic Plate #2: Competition

• 1994:

  • FREE: neighborhood public schools

  • MODERATE TUITION: private parochial (Catholic) schools

• 2019:

• FREE

  • public school (assigned by district)

  • public school (charter, magnet)

  • home school (with low cost a la carte options)

• MODERATE TUITION

  • public school (out of district)

  • private parochial (Catholic) schools

• HIGH TUITION

  • private for-profit schools (e.g., BASIS)

  • private independent schools

Tectonic Shift #3: Cost of College (private college tuition, room, and board) [2]

• 1994: $16,207

• 2019: $36,801

Tectonic Shift #4: Demographics

This varies from region to region. That said, except in outlier cases, the number of school age children has dramatically shrunk since 2008, and there is no reason to believe it will return to pre-2008 numbers any time soon. For a clear-eyed take on the implications for education, check out section 1 of Morgan Housel’s “Three Big Things: The Most Important Forces Shaping the World.”

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The above portrait suggests that the pie for K12 education is getting smaller. (Few people who can afford it; fewer kids to enroll.)

At the same time, the competition for slices of that pie is increasing (families have more options, most of which are free or moderate cost).

Finally, the explosion in the cost of higher ed casts a shadow over every family’s deliberations about how to spend their disposable income now vs. the future. (The satisficing heuristic is critical here.)

When the tectonic plates shift, remember that your ability to survive and thrive is not just a function of what you choose to do, but also of the market’s overall health.

How are you leveraging your school’s mission to address these tectonic shifts?

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[1] Presented by Jeff Wack at the Strategic Marketing & Advancement Institute, Nov 2019.

[2] Data for 1994 comes from the National Center for Education Statistics; data for 2019 comes from US News & World Report.

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