Through a nationally representative poll, the EdWeek Research Center recently discovered that 9% of parents who did not homeschool last school year said they plan to homeschool for part of this school year. (In a typical year, about 3% of children are homeschooled.)

Some percentage of the 9% of families will stick with homeschooling in 2021-22. Turnkey platforms like Sora and Prisma will make that choice easier.

As the hype cycle shows, a period of “disillusionment” will follow. The overall percentage of homeschoolers might grow from 3% to 5%, or even 10%, but they will remain a significant minority.

As the months and years tick away, Sora, Prisma, and other homeschooling platforms will improve the experience for their customers, debugging their offerings and creating proof points along the way.

After enough of those proof points, homeschooling solutions will “cross the chasm” from the early market to the early majority. Some of these early majority families will pull their kids out of independent schools.

By itself, that siphoning of enrollment won’t deliver a death blow. But with shrinking K12 demographics and widening socioeconomics, schools can’t afford to lose tuition paying families. Meanwhile, other educational innovations will put pressure on these schools to upgrade their offerings.

Change happens slowly, and then all at once. If you’re not listening to the signals on the edge—those 3% who become 5%, then 10%, then more—you’ll find yourself flat footed.

Being caught flat footed is ok… if you have designed your system to get the best out of your pioneers, settlers, and town planners.

Have you designed for that kind of resilient system? Have you designed your system to listen for the signals from the edges of your ecosystem?

If not, what is your strategy?

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