Call this the enrollment issue…

***

“Now Trending: Three Enrollment Takeaways from the Latest NAIS Trendbook,” by Myra McGovern and Karla Taylor, on the Enrollment Management Association blog

“[Trend] 1. The COVID-induced drop in consumer confidence points to a fundamental challenge for independent schools. […]

“[Trend] 2. A previous economic crisis suggests that schools will face major changes in their admissions funnel. […]

“[Trend] 3. Small schools that focus on young students may face high attrition levels.”

Why does this matter to the future of learning?

Some independent schools actually gained enrollment during the pandemic. Some.

For many others, the 2021-22 admissions cycle looks bleak. Two schools we know well have reported 20% declines in applications for next year—and they are not even close to the most expensive option in their market.

Takeaway 1: Reassess your value proposition. Then align everyone—Board, leadership team, faculty, staff, alumni, existing parents—around a shared narrative of that value.

Takeaway 2: Be prepared to recalibrate your admissions funnel for the future.

***

“Long ignored, private online schools see golden opportunity in pandemic,” by Avi Wolfman-Arent on WHYY / PBS.org

“Many families could never have entertained a model as freewheeling as Laurel Springs because they needed some physical place to take their kids during the day while they work. Now, parents are getting a taste of what it’s like to work a flexible schedule from home. And they’re getting a taste of what it might be like to have a more present role in their kids’ education.

“What if after the pandemic millions of parents suddenly have the freedom to work remotely?”

Why does this matter to the future of learning?

Counterpoint from the same article: “Working from home while supervising school work has been an unholy strain on many families. ‘They’re gonna slingshot [back] to what they’ve always done,’ said Barbour.”

Smart money may be on both things happening.

But the latter cohort—families who want to send their kids to a physical presence school every day—are likely going to expect the option for their kids learn from home (or the beach, or wherever) when they feel like it. This is going to introduce a structural cost.

***

“Fall’s Enrollment Decline Now Has a Final Tally. Here’s What’s Behind It.” By Eric Hoover, in The Chronicle of Higher Education

“The latest survey, released on Thursday, shows that total enrollment across higher education is down 2.5 percent. […] But this top-line drop in enrollment masks a fair amount of variation […].”

What does this mean for the future of learning?

Some data points on that variation:

• Undergraduate enrollment: -3.6% from the fall of 2019.

• First-time freshmen: -13.1 % (with steep declines among first-time Black, Hispanic, and Native American students)

• Graduate enrollment: +3.6%—but “actual growth in the number of students enrolled in graduate or professional programs, nearly 99,000, was smaller than the drop in the number of undergraduates [560,000].”

• For-profit four-year colleges: +5.3 percent. Of note: median age was 31, “about a decade older than the median of students attending other types of institutions.”

• Men’s enrollment: -5.1%.

• Women’s enrollment: -0.7%.

• English Lit &Language and Foreign Languages majors: -7% and -8%, respectively.

• Computer Science and Psychology majors: +5% and +7%, respectively.

Finally: demographers are predicting 300,000 - 500,000 fewer births next year due to CV19.

***

“Lots of Things Happening At Once,” by Morgan Housel, on the Collaborative Fund blog

“Story: College tuition has surged because of a proliferation of government-backed student loans that let schools easily jack up prices.

“Of course that’s true.

“Many other things are also true:

“The share of tuition paid by students at state colleges has surged as state governments reduce the portion they cover in an attempt to deal with their budget shortfalls.

“Published tuition isn’t a good measure of what people actually pay due to a surge in financial aid designed to make students feel like they’re getting a deal.

“Demand for college has increased as the economy shifts from labor-intensive to knowledge jobs.

“As where you went to college becomes a growing part of a generation’s social identity, students have become less price-sensitive because they think they’re buying more than an education.”

Why does this matter to the future of learning?

Leaders—especially trustees with a fiduciary duty, and Heads of School / Presidents (ie, CEOs of the nonprofits)—must take care not to reduce their strategizing to two or three prominent but incomplete narratives about what’s going on.

We hear such thinking often, typically paired with motivated reasoning: “This year was unusual because…” or “We’re not that far off historic numbers…” or “It is a pandemic, so we can’t entirely trust these numbers…” or “We’re the best kept secret, and all we need to do is market ourselves better…”

Those things may all be true.

And, in addition, there may be several other, structural, systemic reasons why trends are not moving in your favor.

Narratives are among the most powerful drugs we consume. Choose your medicine wisely.

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